Shutdown Politics, Partisan Gridlock Put Medicare, Social Security at Greater Risk of Insolvency
October 6, 2025 | Medicare
Dr. Steven Fox, physician and expert in geriatric and disability medicine, warns that while a government shutdown alone does not cause Medicare or Social Security to fail, the combination of shutdown brinkmanship, debt-ceiling standoffs, and hyper-partisan gridlock dramatically increases the likelihood that both programs will reach insolvency without corrective action.
“Medicare and Social Security are essential lifelines for older Americans. Political stalemates don’t change the math—but they delay the solutions,” said Dr. Fox. “Every year Congress waits, the eventual fixes get bigger, harder, and more painful.”
- Shutdowns don’t stop benefits: Social Security checks and Medicare benefits continue during a shutdown, as they are mandatory spending.
- Debt ceiling standoffs raise default risk: If a shutdown coincides with a debt-ceiling impasse, Treasury could face difficulties paying obligations on time, leading to delays in benefits and provider payments.
- Insolvency risk rising: Both the Social Security OASI Trust Fund and Medicare HI Trust Fund are projected to be depleted around 2033. Without reforms, Social Security benefits could face automatic cuts of 20% to 25% and Medicare Part A would be limited to incoming revenues.
Medicare and Social Security’s looming insolvency is a political risk as much as a financial one. Shutdowns magnify uncertainty, and gridlock makes it increasingly probable that both programs will hit insolvency dates without reform. A bipartisan, coordinated solution is needed urgently to safeguard the retirement and health security of over 65 million Americans.
“The greatest threat to Medicare and Social Security isn’t the aging population—it is political paralysis,” said Fox. “If we don’t act together, seniors will face automatic benefit cuts within a decade.”